Consider Bitcoin trading at $25,000 when a death cross triggers a wave of panic selling; implied volatility skyrockets, inflating premiums on put options. When the bitcoin death cross ignites widespread panic, implied volatility spikes dramatically, inflating option premiums far above their intrinsic value. We have been sharing this mid-term target for BTC multiple times already, and the price action has been confirming this outlook as the token has failed to recapture the $100,000 level. This technical phenomenon is known as a death cross and could mark the beginning of a strong downtrend for the alvexo review top crypto. M2 money supply signals profound changes for cryptocurrency investing, impacting Bitcoin, Ethereum, and market strategies amid inflationary pressures. Explore historical trends, market dynamics, and investment strategies for crypto investors.
Bitcoin (BTC) price: Trendline broken, eyes on $80K
The Squeeze Momentum Indicator is off but pointing downward, suggesting the selling pressure isn’t done. The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, is likewise measured on a 0 to 100 scale and gives a sense of momentum, with scores above 70 signally overbought and below 30 oversold. Bitcoin’s Average Directional Index, or ADX, sits at 30.5, almost 3 points below yesterday’s readings, showing that the bullish bounce is losing steam rapidly. That dotted white line on the chart below? Meanwhile, 90% of the money betting on a new Solana all-time high before July is saying “no.”
Data from Glassnode indicates that the “death cross,” a technical analysis term that may indicate a bearish signal, is imminent for bitcoin. Bitcoin’s SuperTrend indicator recently sent a bearish signal on the weekly chart, an event that has historically marked the beginning of bear markets. Long-term bitcoin holders are selling at the fastest pace since August as the cryptocurrency’s price lags behind broader financial markets. Glassnode data shows that bitcoin’s “death cross,” a technical analysis term that may indicate a bearish signal, is imminent, but with a catch. Bitcoin has printed a “death cross” on the daily chart as its 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day line, reviving debate over what comes next for the market.
- M2 money supply signals profound changes for cryptocurrency investing, impacting Bitcoin, Ethereum, and market strategies amid inflationary pressures.
- The bitcoin death cross—the moment when Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average plunges below its 200-day moving average—often ignites precisely this type of panic.
- In conclusion, the bitcoin death cross represents both danger and profound opportunity—an intense market paradox.
- The strongest immediate support for Solana sits around the $117 zone, marked by the dotted line near the current price in the chart above.
- The death cross formation occurred when Bitcoin’s 50-day simple moving average crossed below its 200-day simple moving average on November 16.
- Analyst Brett notes that the 50-week MA remains a more decisive long-term indicator than the Death Cross alone.
- This occurs when the 50-period moving average crosses below the 200-period moving average.
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BTC drops after facing rejection at former support-turned-resistance.
Top stories, top movers, and trade ideas delivered to your inbox every weekday before and after the market closes. In contrast, in periods such as 2014, 2018, and 2022, the death cross showed up before selling was finished, with forced liquidations and balance-sheet stress still pushing prices lower. Death crosses that appeared near cycle bottoms often marked periods when selling pressure had already peaked and price was stabilizing. The April correction was both deeper and longer, with bitcoin falling about 30% from the January peak near $109,000 and spending around 79 days trending lower before bottoming in the first week of April. Bitcoin is currently down about 25% from its October all-time high around $126,000, and this correction has been ongoing for roughly 41 days.
“Thisran in the face of the $1.4 billion inflows BTC ETFs saw last week andindicates breaking $100,000 is going to be far more macro-led than previousrallies,” explains Howard from Wincent. Bitcoincurrently trades 10.6% below the psychological $100,000 level at $89,369. “Whatawaits us in the future? At minimum a test of lows from the end of 2025, orgoing much deeper, to 2025 lows, before weak hands are completely cut out andthe market returns to accumulation,” Jóźwiak concludes. Fromcurrent $89,369 levels, this would mean a possible decline of over 44%. Prices reversed after last week’s approach tonearly $98,000 and are now returning to the range of consolidation drawn sinceNovember, whose lower limit falls at the level of $84,000.
This time around, bitcoin has already ifc markets review dropped as much as 10% since the reopening, raising the question of whether the same pattern will play out again. It took until Feb. 9, 2019, for bitcoin to recover, approximately two weeks. The closest comparison is the 2019 shutdown, when bitcoin fell more than 9% five days after the government reopened on Jan. 25, 2019. With the current selloff of 25% over 41 days, further downside is still possible. The current drawdown is less severe than the April correction, when bitcoin dropped below $75,000 during the tariff-related turmoil. In January 2022, the death cross was followed by a 64% BTC price drop, bottoming at $15,500, fueled by the FTX collapse.
- Bitcoin’s SuperTrend indicator recently sent a bearish signal on the weekly chart, an event that has historically marked the beginning of bear markets.
- Four death crosses in one cycle is unprecedented for Bitcoin during an advance, and the last three coincided with late-stage corrective lows rather than trend collapses.
- CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017.
- After the projected low in late 2026, Fous expects Bitcoin to base at those Fibonacci levels and then grind higher toward new all-time highs.
- On Sunday, Bitcoin’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossed below its 200-day SMA for the first time since January 2024, forming a death cross.
- Conversely, those during bear markets are typically short-lived.
- In technical analysis, a death cross often signals weakening momentum after a sustained uptrend.
Weekly Death Cross Favors 60% Drop for Bitcoin
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Bitcoin’s decline has breached multiple critical support levels that traders monitor for trend changes. The pattern has preceded substantial drawdowns in previous cycles, with Bitcoin experiencing drops ranging from 64% to 71% following similar formations. While the Death Cross signals caution, history shows that Bitcoin often rebounds after similar events. Meanwhile, medium-term projections indicate a 15–27% recovery gain over the next 2–3 months if BTC follows median historical behavior. If BTC does not rally within 7 days, analysts warn another leg down could precede a larger recovery. Benjamin Cowen and Rekt Fencer argue that previous Death Crosses have often marked local lows, rather than market tops.
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Bitcoin price has been forming consecutive higher highs and lows, displaying the inability of the bulls to revive a strong upswing. The trading volume escalated from around $85 billion to above $106 billion as the levels slid below $100K. The price has rebounded to some extent above $97,000, while the fear of a pullback persists. After marking daily close below $100K for the first time in 5 months, the buyers were expected to step in. The latest news, articles, and resources, sent to your inbox weekly. For context, Solana was trading above $250 back in September.
As I show on my chart, Bitcoin trade99 review trades 15.5%below 200 EMA ($105,731) with death cross active since November 16. Bitcoinfell 3.44% to $89,369 (intraday low $89,162) as “the tariff baton has beenswung once again overnight and pulled all risk assets lower with Europeanequities trading almost 2% down,” explains Paul Howard from Wincent. Theproximity of current prices ($89,369) to the year low ($74,420) is particularlyconcerning. “Thekey factors on BTC moving higher will be US policy driven so I expect until wesee conditions improve (lower interest rates) and less tariff rhetoric. As aresult, BTC is likely to stay below the $100,000 level for thetime-being.” Despite$1.4 billion in Bitcoin ETF inflows last week, the cryptocurrency continuescrashing.
The strongest immediate support for Solana sits around the $117 zone, marked by the dotted line near the current price in the chart above. Exponential moving averages, or EMAs, help traders identify trends by taking the average price of an asset over the short, medium, and long term. I provide death cross updates, Fibonacci projections, and macroimpact insights on crypto markets. The deathcross from November 16, 2025, remains an active strong sell signal, while thebroken head and shoulders pattern continues to project medium-term targets at$74,000 (April lows) and $61,000 in a more bearish scenario. Bitcoin (BTC) price isfalling for the sixth consecutive session, dropping to $89,369 on January 20,2026, the longest losing streak since November 2024, as Trump’s renewed tariffthreats and risk-off sentiment triggered a crypto market meltdown. Real-time quote and/or trade prices are not sourced from all markets.
Analyst Brett notes that the 50-week MA remains a more decisive long-term indicator than the Death Cross alone. Historical data from 2014 to 2025 shows mixed short-term outcomes but strong medium- to long-term rebounds in many cycles. While the market is currently pricing Pudgy at a premium relative to traditional IP peers, sustained success depends on execution across retail expansion, gaming adoption and deeper token utility. This time around bitcoin has already dropped as much as 10% since the reopening. With current selloff of 25% and 41 days, perhaps further downside still possible. This current drawdown is less severe than the April correction, when bitcoin dropped below $75,000 during the tariff related turmoil.
Moreover, Coinbase’s chart now has some bearish features that reveal more recent technical damage. In conclusion, the bitcoin death cross represents both danger and profound opportunity—an intense market paradox. In contrast to the frightened masses, contrarian investors thrive on fear-driven events such as the bitcoin death cross.
Disciplined investors meticulously analyse each occurrence of the bitcoin death cross, assessing fundamental market conditions, macroeconomic context, and sentiment extremes. The bitcoin death cross—the moment when Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average plunges below its 200-day moving average—often ignites precisely this type of panic. Throughout history, markets have repeatedly demonstrated that collective panic, triggered by signals like the bitcoin death cross, can annihilate fortunes with ruthless efficiency. However, a sell signal in the weekly chart from November last year is unfolding as expected, while a major technical signal in this higher time frame could mark the beginning of a “crypto winter”. The latest signal comes from Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average slipping below its 200-day moving average, a technical pattern widely labeled a “death cross.”
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